For the past several weeks we have been hearing about the specter of GM and possibly Daimler-Chrysler filing for bankruptcy protection. While this has certainly been precipitated by 40% drops in sales over the last few months, it started years ago.
Having once been in the retail side of the automotive business I follow it a bit and so I can say with confidence that this was inevitable even without the current deep recession.
For at least three years now, all three domestic automakers have been losing billions each quarter. Occasionally they would show a slight profit but for the most part they have all been bleeding cash for several years with no end in sight.
One has to only look at the structure of these behemoths and the products they turn out to see that. Add in the volatile price of fuel that threatens the one line of vehicles they were making money on (SUV’s and trucks) and you can see the cards are stacked against them.
High labor costs, high material costs, too many models that don’t sell, and probably the most foreign competition of any major product that is still manufactured here all spell doom for the auto industry as we know it.
The business model that made Detroit the power it once was worked for about 60 years. That model does not work today. Changing decades of habits like short term profitability and sloppy business practices is a difficult thing to do and happens slowly. In this case too slowly to survive.
Would the auto makers have been able to make changes and emerge as a leaner, more responsive industry had the current recession not decimated sales? Maybe, but I doubt it. I think what will happen is that like so many other industries, once the recession is over, we will buy most of our cars from overseas and a handful of smaller manufacturers making limited models will emerge. Unfortunately, the jobs that are lost will not.